TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, COGNITREND FOR DEUTSCHE BANK

EURO/DOLLAR: "Yesterday's trading pattern reveals that Monday's supply resulting from another round of medium-term selling was not fully digested. In addition, the demand from short-term sources might not have been too convincing, as would-be buyers ran out of arguments. Who dared to sell dollars after the quick take-over of Kabul? As we already argued yesterday, the norm is to sell the euro, buy the dollar, whatever the news might be. To deviate from this norm would not only mean a higher commitment, but would involve a high degree of dissonance if such a decision goes wrong. We, therefore, stick to our short-term view, where the downside remains open for a test of our critical medium-term pivot at $0.8735/75 (strong). The majority of the sales on lower levels, however, would rather result from the short-term camp than from medium-term sources. The latter might become visible on bounces at $0.8870 or $0.8915 respectively. The bullish trigger, however, remains at a far distance at $0.9015."