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30 December 2003 13:57  Swiss leading indicator surges ahead in November


ZURICH, Dec 30 - Switzerland's leading indicator rose to 0.60 in November, its highest level since February 2001, data showed on Tuesday, providing more evidence that the Swiss economy was accelerating out of a double-dip recession. The reading for the October indicator was revised to 0.43 from 0.47 previously, the KOF Institute for Business Cycle Research said. The mid-range forecast for the November figure in a poll of 10 economists was 0.65. The closely-watched indicator points to the expected performance of the Swiss economy in six to nine months time and confirms expectations of a strong recovery next year.
Activity in the industrial sector improved but was only a little above the year-ago level, KOF said in a statement. "But still one can expect positive year-on-year GDP growth rates from the start of the new year," it added. The Swiss National Bank has said it will keep interest rates at record low levels until it was convinced a tentative recovery had firmly taken root. Some economists expect a rate rise as early as the first quarter of 2004. The SNB's interest rate target band for the three-month Swiss franc LIBOR rate is 0.0-0.75 percent, where it has been since a seventh consecutive rate cut in March. It aims for the lower end of the band, or effectively 0.25 percent. The economy grew in the third quarter for the first time in a year on the back of an improvement in the surrounding euro zone -- including Switzerland's main trading partner Germany -- and the increased competitive edge of a relatively weak franc.//
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